French election: Le Pen, Macron and Mélenchon dealing with very different hangovers (2024)

PARIS — Voters have spoken in the first round of the crucial French legislative election, paving the way for a tense, uncertain week of campaigning before the runoff next Sunday.

Projections based on exit polls show an absolute majority is within reach for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. That would force Emmanuel Macron, the French president, into appointing the first democratically elected far-right government in France’s modern history.

But as Le Pen put it Sunday, “nothing is won” for her party.

Who will compete in the second round remains unclear. It will depend on how each party acts in the face of a possible far-right win, leaving key political players with burning headaches in the days before the final round.

Here’s what the results mean for the main players:

Marine Le Pen: Looking strong

The National Rally is on course to obtain its strongest-ever finish in the first round of a nationwide election. It is likely to have won dozens of seats even before the second round once the final results are tallied, including that of its presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, who secured her seat with more than 50 percent of the vote in her home turf of Hénin-Beaumont, in Northern France.

Her sister, Marie-Caroline Le Pen, finished first in the western region of Sarthe, in what used to be a bastion of more conventional center-right candidates.

“The French people have shown without ambiguity their willingness to turn the page after seven years of corrosive power,” Marine Le Pen said in her election night speech, seeking to mobilize her voters ahead of the runoff. “However, nothing is won. The second round will be decisive.”

Le Pen is in no hurry. Whether her party wins the July 7 runoff, she will be in a prime position to lead her party in 2027 for the ultimate prize — the French presidency.

Jordan Bardella: Seeing himself up there

National Rally President Jordan Bardella, who is eyeing the position of prime minister should his party prevail Sunday, didn’t criticize Macron’s camp in his speech Sunday night.

Instead, he took aim at the left, which came second across the country.

Bardella said the New Popular Front would be “an existential danger for our nation” and accused it of wanting to disarm police and to open French borders to migrants, and of having “no moral boundaries.”

“The time has come to give power to leaders who understand you, who care about you,” he said.

Emmanuel Macron: Beaten and bruised

The biggest loser of the night appear to be Macron and his allies. Significantly trailing both its rivals, the centrist coalition will likely lose dozens of the 250 seats it currently holds in the National Assembly, with little prospect of forming a new governing coalition. Early estimates showed the presidential camp was eliminated in nearly half of all districts.

Macron’s decision to call a snap election following his party’s terrible showing in the European Parliament election last month stunned even his own camp, with key allies including Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire and former PM Edouard Philippe openly criticizing the president’s move. Many candidates running under the centrist banner refused to put Macron’s face on their election posters out of fear it could hinder their chances of being elected.

The president left it to his Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to face cameras Sunday the night. It was perhaps a wise move.

Gabriel Attal: In hangover mode

Attal, once considered a rising star of French politics, admitted he was excluded from Macron’s sudden decision to call a snap election — and has now suffered a humiliating defeat in plain sight.

On top of that, he had the difficult task on Sunday of conveying the presidential camp’s somewhat ambiguous position ahead of the second round.

In the French system, any candidate who gets more than 12.5 percent of registered voters in its district makes the runoff. With a historically high turnout level, hundreds of districts could have three-way races in the second round, in most cases with one candidate from each major coalition and often with the National Rally in first place.

This means third-place candidates eager to avoid a National Rally win could be prompted to bow out of the race and put their weight behind the candidate best positioned to beat the far right.

Attal said “not one vote must go to the National Rally,” but only committed to withdraw when third to a “Republican candidate.”

Meaning: not one of those radical leftists.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: Weakened but not out

The left-wing alliance of France Unbowed, the Greens and the Socialists made a strong showing with 28.1 percent of the vote, but has little chance of gathering a workable majority.

The alliance, called the New Popular Front, is a rebooted version of the 2022 Nupes alliance, which was masterminded by hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Mélenchon was heavily criticized during the campaign by some of his more centrist allies for his reluctance to step aside after the successful campaign of Socialist-backed candidate Raphaël Glucksmann in the European election, which gave more weight to the moderate left.

The battle for leadership in his camp is now on, with rising leftwing figures such as François Ruffin eyeing the top spot.